This year
Renault has launched the 100% Electric Vehicles to the market. Leaving at one
side constraints in vehicles’ autonomy (up to 100 km by now) and the cost of
battery rental (in a range of 50 € per month in the smallest vehicle which has
space for two passengers) and the attractiveness to consumers put in place in
the delay of the great scale manufacturing of the BYD vehicles since the
Chinese-American consortium based their strategy in grants for the retail price
of their vehicles which have been cancelled, this briefing uniquely focuses in
the impact in the energy sector according the degree of penetration of these
vehicles and under the assumption that normal human behaviours are not going to
change at least in the mid term.
Hence let’s
assume that by one side developed countries are going to maintain their levels
of car use and the number of them.
Chart 1: Year Vs. # of vehicles
This chart has been
done based upon the following assumptions:
- The range of vehicles
in developed countries goes from 500 to 570 vehicles per one thousand
inhabitants (current figures taken from
- The demographic growth
has been taken from the forecast made by the Spanish National Statistics
Institute (INE in the Spanish spelling)
The following
step shall be to translate the number of vehicles to electricity; power and
energy consumption according the best technology available.
In order to be
fully loaded the batteries need a voltage of 230 V (standard LV level in
Europe) and 13 Amperes during 6 hours[1],
what derives in an extra power demand of almost 3 kW and 17.94 kWh of energy
consumption per vehicle (and day, at least in standard working days) if no
significant technology improvements are made in the following years regarding
electricity storage.
The following
question to be made is clear, which will be consequences in the entire power
system and energy markets? In order to answer, or rather, make a proxy to the answer;
let’s focus in the average daily load curve of a normal power system as it is
nowadays:
Chart 2: Source Spanish TSO (REE). Load demand on Wednesday
May 11th 2012 .
Obviously, the
demand curve matches with the normal human activity, very low demand at night
(off-peak hours) and peaking hours at noon and 22 hours at
night, which corresponds with the hour when families meet together at home.
Hence it is
reasonable to think that vehicles would be plugged at the time users arrives at
home to prevent running out of power when attending their works the following
morning, therefore there wouldn’t be the so claimed “peaking release”. Indeed,
most users would connect their vehicles a soon as they arrive at home and the
average hour is between 19:00 to 20:00 hours, just
when demand starts to increase up to the peak hour.
At this stage,
estimation can be made in terms of power availability requirements depending on
the degree of EV penetration in different time horizons:
Chart 3: Peak Increase in the whole system according
to EV penetration
It can be
observed from the above chart that the differences among different time frames
derive in no significant differences in the power peak, so the single driver
under the assumptions pointed out at the top of the present briefing, is the
degree of EV penetration.
In case of Spain
In terms of
energy prices, the impact would be huge due the fact that the lack of extra
capacity would derive in a sharp increase on prices based on the actual lack of
competition, and the power demand would be entirely price acceptance.
In terms of
power networks, they would be obliged to be increased in terms of transmission,
primary distribution and secondary distribution capacity, regardless domestic
investment to be made in order to adequate households current supply power
installation that would remain out of connection charges or toll tariffs.
In terms of
social welfare it can be concluded that an evident CO2 emissions
saving would be attained and the decrease of fossil fuel dependence would
provide a healthy Energy Balance of developed countries, depending on their
power generation share.
Hence it can be
concluded that once the technological restrictions are overcome in EV the
following challenges should be strongly faced by Policy Makers, Regulators and
Public Institutions:
1. How
CO2 emissions reductions should be integrated in the cap and trade EUEA
Scheme and other international commitments[2]?
2. How
National Energy Plans should be adapted to this new paradigm in terms of RES
promotion?, What about Nuclear Power Generation Needs (current and future)?
3. How
would the power markets been adapted to prevent or not, the foreseen electricity
price increase?, What about cross subsidies (user with no vehicles)?
4. How
should Energy Regulators face the foreseen increase in regulated tariffs arisen
from the power networks reinforcements?
5. What
about the scarcely populated areas and seasonal use of small populations?
6. When
would societies realistically and in a sustainable manner endeavour the EV
promotion constrained by the current economic environment?
